Total Shots Ratio

The TSR is determined by the following formula:

TSR = (Total shots for)/(Total shots for + total shots against).

For example, in the La Liga-match between FC Barcelona and Real Betis Sevilla on December 30, 2015, FC Barcelona attempted a total of 17 shots on their opponent’s goal, while conceding 11.

If we take these figures and insert them into the formula, we get the following:

TSR = 17/(17 + 11) = 17/28 = 0,607

The usage

The TSR was an early concept used to accurately predict the performance of teams in the remaining duration of a league. A high TSR compared to the rest of the league would normally indicate a high ranking at the end of the season. The accuracy of TSR increases when more matches are played.

The limitation of TSR, however, is that it does not take into account the quality of a shot. For example, a shot at an empty goal has the same value as a 40-yard strike: 1.

With the rising popularity of data analysis in football, several derivatives of this formula were created. For example, Shots on Target Ratio (STR) and Expected Goals Ratio (ExGR) were designed, working on the same principle: Event for/(Event for + Event Against).

Although several other ratios have been developed and used for predictions, TSR still holds up due to its simple nature, the large sample and adequate accuracy for predictions.