In this contribution, we reflect on the chances of the clubs still in consideration for a Championship Playoff ticket. We first simulated the 24 remaining matches 100.000 times, while taking into account the results of the already played matches and the difficulty of the reaming schedule. We then calculate the statistical chance for every club of finishing on a certain league position. The table below shows a summarizing overview. The column "Championship Playoff" shows the chance of a club finishing in places one to six, while the column "Europea League Playoff" present the chance that a club finishes at places seven to fifteen. The column "Relegation" shows the chance of a club finishing last, which results in relegation out of the Pro League.
Besides already-qualified Anderlecht and Club Brugge, Zulte Waregem and KV Oostende look to be all but certain of a spot in the Championship Playoff. Subsequently, the battle for the remaining two tickets will likely be fought out between Charleroi, AA Gent, KV Mechelen and Racing Genk. Our simulation expects Charleroi and AA Gent to prevail in this situation. Both clubs mostly face beatable opponents and also have two home matches remaining. Racing Genk, however, faces matches against both Anderlecht and Club Brugge, while KV Mechelen faces unpredictable Standard and Anderlecht, before facing AA Gent in a possibly all-decisive showdown.
In any case, the remaining fixtures promise to be an exciting end of the regular season. Our simulation shows that reaching a total of 48 points gives a club a good chance of qualifying for the Championship Playoff. In over 41% of our simulations, the club ranked sixth got 48 points. In 22% of the cases a total of 47 points is sufficient.
