Juventus – FC Porto
First up is Juventus – Porto. The Italians won the first match in Portugal 2-0, which gives them an excellent position to start the return in Turin.
Based on our SciSkill Index, we predict that ‘Juve’ will have no trouble qualifying for the quarter-finals. With a Goal Prediction of 1.44 to 0.53, Juve is likely to get their second win over the Portuguese. These Goal Predictions lead to a 59.8% chance of a home win, with Porto’s chances of coming away with a win being a mere 13.6%.
This gives us the following odds: 1.67 for a home win, 4.35 for a draw and 7.36 for an away win. Unibet (at the time this blog was written) seems to agree with us, as they put Juve’s odds on a win at 1.75. They do think a draw is more likely (3.60), but that will still not be enough for Porto to pull an upset.
Leicester City – Sevilla
A late goal from Vardy made the chances of Leicester going through a bit more likely, although Sevilla is still considered by many as the favorite for a place in the quarter-finals after their impressive display in Seville. With 2-1 down, however, Leicester still has every chance of making history once again.
According to our SciSkill Index, this will be a nail biter. Leicester is the slight favorite here according to our Goal Prediction (1.48-1.12). This translates into a 45.5% chance of a Leicester win and a 28.4% chance of Sevilla winning it. Of course, Sevilla will qualify with a draw or better (or a one-goal loss with 5 goals or more), so our money is on the Spaniards to reach the next round.
The odds are as follows: 2.20 for a home win, 3.83 for a draw and 3.52 for an away win. A close game, most likely, and Unibet concurs. However, they flip our odds as they put Sevilla to win at 2.23, Leicester to win at 3.34 and a draw at 3.83. A bet on Leicester to win could be worth your while.
Atlético de Madrid – Bayer Leverkusen
A day later, Atlético will host Bayer Leverkusen in the return, after the match in Germany ended in a 2-4 win for the Spaniards. Bayer will have to do something spectacular if they want to reach the quarter-finals, but as we saw with Barcelona against PSG, anything is possible.
Our SciSkill Index gives us a Goal Prediction of 1.78-0.76. Atlético will probably qualify without any big struggles and a win seems more likely than not. The chances for an Atlético win lie at 61.5%, while the Germans win in 15.5% of our simulations. Of course, just a win will not be enough for Bayer, as they need to win with three goals or more (or win 3-5 or better).
The percentages give us the following odds: 1.63 for a home win, 4.35 for a draw and 6.47 for an away win. These odds more or less correspond with the ones posted by Unibet. Their odds are 1.67 for a Atletico win, 5.4 for a Bayer win and 4.15 for a draw. Conclusion: not much chances of beating the bookmakers here.
AS Monaco – Manchester City
Three weeks ago, Monaco and City provided us with one of the most entertaining matches this season. In a match with 8 (!) goals, City came from behind two times to finally win it 5-3 at home. Now, Monaco will be looking for revenge.
The SciSkill Index believes there is almost nothing to separate the two. With a Goal Prediction result of 1.44-1.42, the teams are evenly matched. The percentages illustrate this as well, with only a 0.8 point difference between a home and an away win (37.9% to 37.1%). But even if Monaco pull of a win, it will have to be a decisive one (two goals difference or more). They do have the benefit of having scored three away goals, so a 2-0 or 3-1 will be sufficient.
The percentages above translate into the following odds: 2.64 for a home win, 4.01 for a draw and 2.69 for an away win. Unibet once again feels similar about our prediction, as their odds are roughly the same: 2.62, 3.9 and 2.58, respectively. Once again, not a lot of room for making some extra money.
