Tonight, the 2019 Women’s World Cup kicks off with a game between hosts France and South Korea. The United States are the reigning World Champions, but what are their odds to retain their World Cup title? Our statistical forecast awards the United States a 18.7% chance to clinch their fourth World Cup title. Other contenders for the World Cup trophy include two-time World Champions Germany, hosts France, and an emerging England team.
According to our simulations, the most likely course of the tournament sees the United States (rank 1 on the FIFA Women’s World Ranking) and Germany (rank 2) contest the final on Sunday July 7th in Lyon. The United States are the clear favorites with a 18.7% chance to go all the way, while Germany has a 14.4% chance to secure their third World Cup title. On their road to the final, the United States will likely need to get past second-time participants Spain (rank 13) in the round of 16, hosts France (rank 4) in the quarter-finals, and an emerging England team (rank 3) in the semi-finals. In contrast, Germany will likely face opposition from Scotland (rank 20) in the round of 16, European Champions the Netherlands (rank 8) in the quarter-finals, and Australia (rank 6) in the semi-finals.
The most likely course of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup sees reigning World Champions United States prevail in a final against two-time World Champions Germany.
The most important challengers for top contenders USA, Germany, France and England include Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden and the Netherlands. While our simulation only takes into account the home-field advantage for hosts France, other Western European countries such as the Netherlands, Germany and England are likely to also benefit from the geographical location of the tournament, which is held in Europe for the third time. In particular, after winning the 2017 European Championship on home soil, the Netherlands are expected to have plenty of fan support at the World Cup with all their group-stage games being played within six hours of driving from Amsterdam.
The USA, Germany, France and England are the top contenders for the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup. Their most important challengers include Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden and European Champions the Netherlands.
To compute the odds for each country to win the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup, we simulated the World Cup 10,000 times. The simulation considers the team strengths, the tournament schedule and the home-field advantage for hosts France. The team strengths were determined using the FIFA Women’s World Ranking and the results in recently played games. The tournament schedule plays an important role in the simulation as well. For instance, while Canada is rated higher than Australia, the Aussies have slightly better odds to become World Champions due to their more favorable tournament schedule.
Wonder how each of the countries will fare at the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup? Check out our simulation of the tournament via wwc2019.whomightwin.it!
