‘Calcio Italiano’ is known for the defensive style of play combined with some deadly counters, known worldwide as the ‘Catenaccio’ game. This style requires a ‘Numero Nove’ to be a clinical goalscoring machine. The first one that comes to mind; Filippo ‘Pippo’ Inzaghi. In this post, we are going to look at the shot contribution ratings in the Italian Serie A.
The Contribution Ratings module provides additional insights into how a player contributes to the performances of his team by performing actions with the ball (e.g. passes, dribbles, interceptions, and shots). Furthermore, the module shows how each player rates on different aspects compared to all other players in the same position in the same competition.
First of all, it is important to know which situation is defined as a shot:
A shot is defined as a player shooting, trying to score a goal. Excluding penalties, corners and freekicks.
To obtain the shot contribution for a player per match, we first sum the contribution ratings for all shots taken by the player in a season and then divide this sum by 90 minutes. An action’s contribution rating reflects its expected impact on the scoreline, which is computed as the difference in the likelihood of scoring a goal before and after the action. For shots, this boils down to computing the difference between the outcome of the shot and the expected-goals value of the shot. The outcome of the shot is 1 in case of a goal and 0 otherwise, while the expected-goals value of the shot reflects the probability that the shot finds the back of the net.
Underneath you will find two examples of goals with different Contribution Ratings.
In this video, you saw Dutch striker Kaj Sierhuis (FC Groningen) tapping in a relatively easy cross, ‘a goal everyone could make’.
The goal Frederico Chiesa (ACF Fiorentina) is scoring requires a bit more than just a tap in. The distance, the angle, the defenders and the speed of the ball are all contributing to the fact that this goal has a Contribution Rating five times higher than the goal Sierhuis made.
Shot Contribution Ratings Serie A 2018/2019
Now let’s have a look at the shot contribution ratings in the Italian Serie A.
Figure 1. Top 10 shot contribution per 90 minutes in the Serie A (2018/2019)
On top of the list, we find Udinese’s Stefano Okaka. The Watford FC loanee played only 16 games in the Serie A last season but managed to score a 0.37 shot contribution rating for last year’s number 12 of the Serie A.
As expected, Genoa/AC Milan striker Krzysztof Piątek is in the top 3 as well. The Pole managed to score 22 goals in his first season in Italy and his contribution rating is substantiating his performance. Next to that, Piontek is the youngest player in the top 10.
Missing out on the top 10; Cristiano Ronaldo and Fabio Quagliarella. Both scoring 20+ goals last season and were among the top 3 goalscorers but are not listed in the Serie A’s top 10 shot contributors. They can be found at place 16 (Cristiano Ronaldo, 0.23 per 90 minutes) and place 17 (Quagliarella, 0.22 per 90 minutes).
The one completing the top 3 goalscorers is Duván Zapata. The Colombian striker managed to score 23 competition goals for Atalanta Bergamo last season, finishing second on the ‘Capocannoniere’.
Let’s have a closer look at Zapata’s shot contribution in the 2018/2019 Serie A season:
Figure 2. Zapata’s shot contribution compared to other centre forwards in the same league
As you can see, Zapata is among the top 3 shot contributors looking at all centre forwards who were playing in the Serie A last season. The mobile striker is also ranked third looking at his overall contribution compared to his fellow strikers. These ratings are backing up his excellent performances from last season, helping Atalanta Bergamo to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in history.
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